THE WAR THAT FEEDS ITSELF - Europe 2025: Where Peace Talks Are Theater and Blood Is Business

Nearly four years. Over 2 million casualties. €381 billion in European defense spending for 2025 alone. And peace? Still just around the corner. Always just around the fucking corner. This isn't a war anymore, it's an industry. And the negotiations? Pure theater for taxpayers who still believe someone wants this to end.

December 2025. Trump's envoys fly between Moscow, Miami, Geneva, and Abu Dhabi. "Peace is close," they say. "Just a few remaining points of disagreement." Zelensky says talks are "constructive." Putin says proposals are "unacceptable."

Meanwhile, Russia launches 704 drones and missiles at Ukraine in a single night. Eight wounded. Power cut to Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. But the negotiations continue.

This is the war that feeds itself. And Europe? Europe is the banquet hall—just as we documented in The Shadow Army, where Brussels built a €120 billion military structure without public consent.

You want to know what's really happening? Nobody, and I mean nobody, in power wants this war to end. Not yet. Not while it's this profitable. Not while it justifies this much spending. Not while the fear is this useful.

This is the war that feeds itself. And Europe? Europe is the banquet hall.

The Peace Theater: 28 Points, 19 Points, Who's Counting?

Let's start with the "peace process" because that's where the con really shines.

Trump's team develops a 28-point plan. Secret. Drafted with Russia. Leaked to Ukraine. European leaders call it "capitulation to Russian demands", Ukraine keeps nothing, Russia keeps everything, NATO membership off the table.

So they revise it. Now it's 19 points. Then back to 27. Now maybe 19 again. The numbers keep changing because the substance doesn't matter. The process is the point.

Witkoff and Kushner shuttle between capitals. Five-hour meetings in the Kremlin. Three days of talks in Miami. Geneva. Abu Dhabi. London next week. Every meeting produces the same result: "Progress made. More work needed. Stay tuned."

Putin says certain proposals are unacceptable. Doesn't say which ones. Just says he can't agree. Zelensky says Ukraine has "agreed to core terms" but "difficult issues remain", mainly territory and guarantees. The two things that actually fucking matter.

Translation: Nobody's agreeing to shit. But as long as the negotiations continue, the aid flows. The weapons ship. The defense budgets grow. And everyone gets to look like they're trying.

It's not peace talks. It's a performance. And the audience is you, the taxpayer funding this farce.

The Numbers That Tell the Real Story

Let's cut through the diplomatic bullshit and look at what's actually happening.

European Defense Spending:

• 2024: €343 billion (19% increase from 2023)
• 2025 projected: €381 billion
• Defense investments: €106 billion in 2024 → €130 billion projected 2025
• Equipment procurement: €88 billion in 2024 → over €100 billion in 2025

This isn't emergency spending. This is structural. Permanent. Institutionalized.

The EU set a €150 billion loan fund (SAFE) specifically for defense. Loosened fiscal rules to allow €650 billion in off-the-books military spending. Germany alone exempted €500 billion for defense from debt limits.

Meanwhile, at NATO's 2025 summit, member states committed to 5% of GDP on defense by 2035. Not 2%, which was the old target most countries ignored for decades. Five fucking percent.

That's not a response to Ukraine. That's a complete economic restructuring around permanent militarization.

The Corruption Nobody Wants to Talk About

Here's what the "peace" negotiations carefully avoid: Ukraine's war economy is riddled with graft, and everyone knows it.

November 2025: NABU (Ukraine's anti-corruption bureau) uncovers a $100 million embezzlement scheme at Energoatom, the state nuclear power company. The mastermind? Timur Mindich, Zelensky's former business partner, co-owner of Kvartal 95, the TV studio that made Zelensky famous.

The scheme: 10-15% kickbacks on every contract. While Ukrainians sat in blackouts from Russian strikes, Mindich's crew was skimming millions from fortification construction. Energy Minister Halushchenko, implicated. Justice Minister, resigned. Energy Minister Hrynchuk, resigned.

And this isn't isolated.

70% of Ukrainians now believe their government is profiteering from the war, up from 43% a year ago. Corruption in military procurement, defense contracts, mobilization evasion, it's systemic.

Defense spending went from €6 billion in 2021 to €42 billion in 2024. Where did that money go? Not all of it to the front. The Western aid Ukraine receives? Some of it disappears into a black hole of fake contracts, inflated prices, and ghost suppliers.

But here's the thing: Western governments know. They know, and they keep sending money. Because stopping the aid means admitting the war economy is corrupt. Admitting corruption means public pressure to cut funding. Cut funding means the weapons contracts dry up.

So the corruption gets buried. "Isolated incidents." "Ukraine is making progress on reforms." "This shouldn't undermine support."

Bullshit. It's not isolated. It's endemic. And it's being ignored because the war is too profitable to let corruption get in the way.

The Defense Industry Feeding Frenzy

Let's talk about who actually benefits from this war never ending.

European defense industry turnover: €158.8 billion in 2023, up 16.9% from 2022. Military exports: €57.4 billion, up 12.6%.

That's not including the Americans. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, making record profits. US defense stocks hit all-time highs in 2025.

The EU's new defense industrial strategy openly prioritizes "50% of procurement going to EU-based suppliers by 2030, 60% by 2035." This isn't about security. It's about market share. They're using the war to restructure Europe's entire defense industrial base, and locking out competitors.

The European Defense Industry Programme (EDIP): €1.5 billion to "boost" the industry. The European Defence Fund: billions more. Joint procurement mechanisms. Centralized purchasing. All designed to funnel taxpayer money into a permanent war economy.

And the kicker? EU officials admit €1.5 billion "is not nearly enough" and are pushing for "significant increases" in the next budget cycle starting 2028.

They're already planning for the war to continue. Because if it ends, the budgets shrink. If the budgets shrink, the industry contracts. If the industry contracts, the lobbyists lose leverage.

The EU loosened fiscal rules specifically to accommodate military budgets—part of the fear-based control system we exposed in The Fear Machine—meaning austerity for everything else.

The war has to keep going. Not to victory. Just to continuation.

The Fake Negotiations, Explained

Here's how the peace theater actually works:

Step 1: Trump's team develops "peace plan" with Russia. Favorable to Moscow. Ukraine gets fucked.

Step 2: Plan leaks. Europe panics. "This is capitulation!" Ukraine rejects it.

Step 3: Plan gets "revised" with European input. Now it's more balanced. Sort of. Maybe.

Step 4: Witkoff and Kushner fly to Moscow. Putin: "Interesting, but no." Five-hour meeting. "Useful" but "more work needed."

Step 5: They fly to Miami to meet Ukrainian negotiators. Three days of talks. Result: "Constructive" but "difficult issues remain."

Step 6: Zelensky says Ukraine is ready to negotiate but Russia won't commit. Putin says Russia is ready but Ukraine's demands are unrealistic.

Step 7: Europe schedules more meetings. London. Berlin. Brussels. "Coordinated diplomacy." More statements about "progress."

Step 8: Meanwhile, Russia captures another 22 square kilometers per day in Donbass. Ukraine conscripts more men. Defense budgets rise. Weapons shipments continue.

Step 9: Repeat from Step 1.

This cycle has been running for months. The only thing that changes is the location of the meetings and the number of "points" in the latest draft.

Nobody's negotiating in good faith. Russia knows any deal that doesn't give them Donbass is dead on arrival. Ukraine knows any deal that cedes Donbass requires a referendum they'll lose. Europe knows any deal that doesn't guarantee Ukrainian security will collapse within months.

So they negotiate. Endlessly. Publicly. With great fanfare. And nothing happens.

Because the negotiation IS the product. The illusion of peace keeps public support for the war alive. The failure to reach peace keeps the funding flowing.

It's genius, really. As long as they're "trying," nobody can accuse them of wanting the war to continue.

The Casualties Nobody Counts

Over 2 million combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties, dead and wounded, since the war began. Neither side publishes reliable numbers.

Russia's advancing. 505 square kilometers captured in November 2025 alone. Nearly double October's gains. Russian forces control 19.2% of Ukraine now, including Crimea, all of Luhansk, over 80% of Donetsk, 75% of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Ukraine's running out of men. Mobilization is brutal. Forced conscription. Men grabbed off streets. Bribery to avoid deployment. Corruption so pervasive that entire units can pay to stay off the front lines.

And for what?

For a war that NATO won't let Ukraine win (no membership, limited long-range weapons, no direct NATO intervention) but won't let Ukraine lose (enough aid to keep fighting, not enough to prevail).

This is managed attrition. Keep Ukraine in the fight long enough to bleed Russia. Keep Russia engaged long enough to justify European rearmament. Keep both sides killing each other while Western defense contractors rack up record quarters.

The casualties aren't a bug. They're a feature. Because without the casualties, the threat isn't credible. Without the threat, the defense budgets shrink.

So the war grinds on. Another offensive. Another counteroffensive. Another peace summit that produces another framework that leads to another round of talks that ends in another impasse.

The Lies They Tell You

Lie #1: "We're close to peace."

No, you're fucking not. Every "breakthrough" is followed by Russia launching 700+ drones or Ukraine rejecting territorial concessions. The peace is always "just around the corner" because that's where it stays, around the corner, never arriving.

Lie #2: "This is about defending democracy."

Ukraine suspended elections, consolidated media, cracked down on opposition, and just uncovered a $100 million corruption scandal in its energy sector involving the president's inner circle. This isn't about democracy. It's about geopolitical positioning and weapons sales.

Lie #3: "We have to stop Putin from taking all of Europe."

Russia's struggling to take Pokrovsk. They're grinding through Donbass at 22 square kilometers per day after nearly four years. The idea that they're going to roll through Poland and into Germany is NATO fantasy fiction designed to justify €381 billion in defense spending.

Lie #4: "The corruption is isolated."

70% of Ukrainians say their government is profiteering from the war. That's not isolated. That's systemic. And Western governments keep pretending otherwise because acknowledging the corruption means cutting the aid, which means admitting the whole operation is compromised.

Lie #5: "We're doing everything we can to end this."

You're doing everything you can to sustain this. The aid is calibrated to keep Ukraine fighting, not winning. The sanctions hurt Russia but not enough to force capitulation. The negotiations are theater. If you wanted to end it, you'd either give Ukraine everything it needs to win or force a settlement. Instead, you're prolonging it.

Because prolonging it is the point.

The Business Model of Modern War

Here's what nobody will say out loud: the war economy is now bigger than the peace dividend.

Before 2022, European defense spending was stagnant. €189 billion in 2014. Barely growing. Nobody cared.

Then Russia invaded. And suddenly: €240 billion in 2022. €279 billion in 2023. €343 billion in 2024. €381 billion projected for 2025.

That's a €192 billion annual increase in just four years. A complete restructuring of European economic priorities.

And it's not temporary. NATO's new target is 5% of GDP by 2035. The EU created permanent defense funding mechanisms. Member states exempted defense from fiscal limits. Germany alone pledged €1 trillion for defense and infrastructure.

This is the new normal. Permanent militarization. Permanent threat perception. Permanent defense industry growth.

And it only works if the war continues. Not forever, that would be too obvious. But long enough. Long enough for the budgets to become entrenched. Long enough for the industry to expand. Long enough for the public to accept military spending as essential rather than discretionary.

The war feeds itself. The threat justifies the spending. The spending creates the industry. The industry lobbies for more spending. The spending requires justifying threats. The threats require ongoing conflict.

Peace breaks the cycle. Peace means cutting budgets. Cutting budgets means economic pain, lost jobs, reduced profits. So peace becomes the enemy.

And the negotiations? They're not about achieving peace. They're about performing the attempt while ensuring it never quite arrives.

The Poverty They're Creating

While Europe spends €381 billion on defense, ordinary Europeans are getting crushed.

Energy costs still elevated from the war. Inflation persistent. Wages stagnant. Social services cut to make room for defense spending. The EU loosened fiscal rules specifically to accommodate military budgets, meaning austerity for everything else.

Eastern Europe's getting hit hardest. The same countries Brussels lectures about "European values" are now being told to spend more on weapons while their citizens earn half what Western Europeans make.

Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, all ramping up defense spending they can't afford. Germany at least has the economy to absorb it. Poland's defense budget is eating into everything else. But Brussels doesn't care. Because Poland's on the front line of the threat that justifies the system.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian civilians are dying in blackouts because Mindich and his crew embezzled fortification funds. Russian civilians are dying in Ukrainian drone strikes. European taxpayers are paying for weapons that prolong the war while their own living standards decline.

And for what?

For a frozen conflict that enriches defense contractors and empowers bureaucrats while accomplishing nothing strategic except the perpetuation of itself.

The Manipulation: Fear as Policy

Here's the core of it: they're using your fear to justify their budgets.

Russia's a threat. Real. Significant. But the threat is being systematically exaggerated to justify spending levels that go way beyond defense needs.

Russia took four years to grind through 20% of Ukraine. They're losing equipment faster than they can replace it. Their economy's buckling under sanctions. The idea that they're going to steamroll through NATO is absurd.

But the fear works. So they keep feeding it.

Every peace talk that fails becomes proof the threat is ongoing. Every Russian advance becomes justification for more spending. Every Ukrainian plea for weapons becomes moral imperative.

And if you question it? You're "pro-Russian." You're "undermining Ukraine." You're "naive about geopolitics."

They're using your fear to justify their budgets, the same tactic Brussels perfected with every crisis, from COVID to climate to war.

Bullshit. Questioning the war economy isn't pro-Russian. It's pro-reality. Asking why peace talks always fail isn't undermining Ukraine. It's demanding accountability.

But accountability breaks the machine. So dissent gets smeared. Questions get dismissed. And the war continues.

The Truth They Won't Admit

The war in Europe will end when one of three things happens:

1. Russia wins (unlikely, they can't)
2. Ukraine wins (impossible, NATO won't let them have the weapons)
3. Someone decides it's no longer profitable to continue (the only realistic scenario)

Right now, we're nowhere near option 3. Defense budgets are growing. Industry's booming. Political careers are being built on "standing with Ukraine." The lobbying money is flowing.

So the war continues. The negotiations continue. The casualties continue. The lies continue.

And every time someone says "peace is close," know this: they're lying. Peace isn't close. Peace isn't even the goal.

The goal is the continuation of conditions that justify the spending.

Ukraine gets just enough aid to keep fighting. Russia faces just enough pressure to stay engaged but not collapse. Europe gets just enough threat to keep militarizing.

It's a fucking Goldilocks war. Not too hot (direct NATO involvement, nuclear risk). Not too cold (Russian victory, end of threat). Just right (endless grinding conflict that keeps everyone invested).

What Happens Next

2026 will look like 2025. More talks. More "breakthroughs." More impasses. More casualties. More spending.

Zelensky will keep pleading for weapons. Putin will keep taking territory. Trump will keep "trying" to broker peace. Europe will keep spending.

And the defense contractors will keep posting record profits while telling you it's about "defending freedom."

It's not. It's about feeding the machine.

The war that feeds itself doesn't end. It just finds new justifications to continue.

And you? You keep paying. In taxes for weapons. In energy costs from sanctions. In instability from permanent crisis.

While they negotiate. Endlessly. Publicly. Uselessly.

Because the negotiation is the product. The war is the business model. And peace? Peace is bad for business.

A. Kade

"They don't want peace. They want the appearance of pursuing it. The war is too profitable, the fear too useful, and the budgets too large to let something as inconvenient as peace get in the way."

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Related Articles You Must Read:

The War Economy:

• The Shadow Army: Inside the EU's €120 Billion War Chest - How Brussels built military infrastructure without public consent
• The Troops That Aren't Troops: Germany's War Entry - How Germany slipped into war while pretending to stay neutral
• The War Laundry: Ukraine's Aid Feeding Frenzy - Black market operations built on global aid

Fear & Control:

• The Fear Machine: How Brussels Uses Crisis - Every crisis expands EU power while democracy dies
• The Red Line That Never Existed: NATO's Escalation - How NATO escalated while claiming to avoid it

Power & Corruption:

• Ursula von der Leyen: Empress of Clean Hands - Centralization, secrecy, and democratic decay
• Brussels vs Democracy: The €140 Billion Russian Money Heist - Financial heist disguised as moral duty